China’s carbon emissions should structurally decline from 2024


According to an analysis for the Carbon Brief, there has been a record surge in clean energy investments in China and a structural decline in their carbon emissions is expected for 2024, after a peak this year.

Lauri Myllyvirta, was the author of the report and is the lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air. The analysis is based on official figures and commercial data.  He stated that, “these record additions are all but guaranteed to push fossil-fuel electricity generation and CO2 emissions into decline in 2024.” 

By September, Beijing met their solar and wind installation targets and the manufacturing of electric vehicles has already passed the government’s 2025 target of 20%. Solar power, has grown the most according to the report. Solar installations increased by 210 gigawatts (GW) for 2023. This is double the total US solar capacity four times more than what China added in 2020. 

70GW of wind power was installed in China this year, which is more than the entire power generation capacity of the UK. 7GW of hydro power and 3GW of nuclear power capacity are also expected to be added this year.

A decline in China’s emissions could be triggered from next year due to the clean energy boom eventhough many new coal plants have been established across the country. Myllyvirta says,  “this is because – for the first time – the rate of low-carbon energy expansion is now sufficient to not only meet, but exceed the average annual increase in China’s demand for electricity overall.” 

Photo: (c)Ágoston Fung


Author: Sylvia Jacobs

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